OK A bit of prelude – about a year ago, I bet someone $20 that Bush wouldn’t make it through his term, that he’d be impeached. So today we had this conversation:

(10:07:21 AM) alpapp3: The demos look to be in control on the whole congress.
(10:07:25 AM) Tom: Heh
(10:07:26 AM) alpapp3: Want to double down on our bet?
(10:07:30 AM) Tom: Oooo
(10:07:34 AM) Tom: Let me think about it
(10:07:38 AM) alpapp3: ok
(10:07:42 AM) Tom: Is there an option to double down
(10:07:45 AM) alpapp3: Two more years…
(10:07:55 AM) Tom: like $5 now with the option to double down for the next 6 months
(10:08:02 AM) alpapp3: Hmmm…
(10:08:21 AM) alpapp3: I will take the $5 now for you to have 3 months to decide.
(10:08:29 AM) Tom: I’ll reject that option.
(10:08:34 AM) alpapp3:
(10:08:51 AM) alpapp3: Ok, well if you change your mind, I’ll reconsider in the future (given current conditions of course!)
(10:08:57 AM) alpapp3: Risk profile changes daily.
(10:09:10 AM) alpapp3: There really ought to be options and futures markets for elections.
(10:09:14 AM) alpapp3: Maybe we can start that.
(10:09:23 AM) Tom: Ooo like gambling on congress
(10:09:30 AM) alpapp3: It’s “investing” !!!
(10:09:35 AM) Tom: Hehe
(10:09:43 AM) alpapp3: We just make the market and skim our cut
(10:09:50 AM) Tom: mmmm
(10:09:52 AM) Tom: brilliant
(10:10:06 AM) alpapp3: Can you whip together an electronic market maker in J2EE by next week?
(10:10:16 AM) Tom: Sure!
(10:10:18 AM) alpapp3: We’ll need a good DB…
(10:10:21 AM) Tom: wait, does it have to work?
(10:10:23 AM) alpapp3: distributed globally.
(10:10:36 AM) Tom: then No!
(10:10:41 AM) alpapp3: nothing really completely “works” so I guess the answer is no.
(10:10:49 AM) Tom: Then Yes!
(10:10:57 AM) Tom: I can produce a non-working J2EE app by tomorrow!
(10:10:57 AM) alpapp3: Great! We’re on it then!
(10:11:04 AM) alpapp3: hurray!
(10:11:22 AM) alpapp3: Shall I make up the business plan? With that and a non-functional app we are sure to attract many investors.
(10:11:28 AM) alpapp3: in our new venture
(10:12:07 AM) alpapp3: Maybe soemthing like this already exists… I remember seeing a web site that let you make “bets” with others about stuff…
(10:12:20 AM) alpapp3: you put in your side and your $$$ and someone can take you up on it.
(10:12:27 AM) alpapp3: It’s simpler but still pretty cool.
(10:12:34 AM) alpapp3: Can be used for politicians or whatever.